Bank of Canada decides Oct. 28. Don't count on a rate cut to fix your budget.

The Bank of Canada makes its next interest-rate announcement on Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, at 9:45 a.m. ET, alongside its quarterly Monetary Policy Report. It’s one of only two decisions left this year; the other is Dec. 9.

If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, a home equity line of credit or an unsecured line of credit, the date matters. But if you’ve been holding on for a rate cut to make your monthly payments work, it’s worth being realistic about what’s coming.

Where rates stand

At its last decision on Sept. 2, the Bank held its policy rate at 2.25%. Big-bank prime rates sit at 4.45%, which is what most variable mortgages, HELOCs and lines of credit are priced from. In its September statement, the Bank warned that “new tariffs could increasingly feed into consumer prices.”

That warning is the key. When a central bank is worried prices could rise, it is cautious about cutting rates. Some economists have even discussed whether the next move could be up rather than down. Nobody knows what Oct. 28 will bring — but planning your finances around a cut is a bet, not a budget.

Households are carrying a lot

The debt picture is mixed. Statistics Canada reported on Sept. 11 that household debt fell slightly relative to income in the second quarter: Canadians owed about $1.76 for every $1 of disposable income (176.4%), down from 178.6% the quarter before. About 14.5% of disposable income goes to debt payments.

But the credit bureaus show pressure building in specific places:

• Total consumer debt hit a record $2.68 trillion in Q2, according to Equifax Canada (TransUnion, which measures differently, puts it at $2.64 trillion).
• Credit card balances reached $134.2 billion. The share of card balances 90 or more days late rose to 4.19%, up 6.8% in a year.
• A quarter of Canadians Equifax surveyed expect to make only minimum payments in the coming months.
• Ontario homeowners are a growing concern: among Ontario mortgage holders, the rate of non-mortgage accounts 90+ days late is up 27% from a year ago.
• The average non-mortgage balance per consumer is $28,118, up 7.6% (TransUnion).

Falling behind on cards and car loans before the mortgage is a familiar pattern. People protect the house first. That’s often an early sign that a mortgage renewal at a higher payment could tip the balance.

What you can do before Oct. 28

1. Price your debts at today’s rates. List every balance, its interest rate and minimum payment. If the total only works if rates fall, you need a plan B.
2. Look at your renewal date. If your mortgage renews in the next 12 months, talk to your lender or a broker now about what your new payment will be.
3. Tackle high-interest balances first. Credit cards at 20% or more cost far more than anything the Bank of Canada will change on Oct. 28.
4. Know all your options. Consolidation loans, credit counselling, consumer proposals and bankruptcy each work differently. A good starting point is to compare debt consolidation with the other ways to deal with debt before you sign anything.

We’ll cover the Oct. 28 decision and what changes — if anything — for your payments the day it’s announced.